Hope rises for clouds on horizon

By Alex Breitler

STOCKTON - There they were Friday, three little words in next week's weather forecast: "Chance of rain."

Stockton should be nearing the end of a historic dry spell that blessed us with short-sleeve afternoons, but also mucked up air quality, killed grass needed to sustain cattle and compelled farmers to ask for unprecedented water deliveries in the middle of what should be the wettest month of the year.

Today marks 30 days since measurable rain fell in the city. When the streak ends - next Thursday, if current forecasts prove true - it will be the second-longest dry spell on record during a rainy season, falling short only to a 41-day mini-drought in December 1962 and January 1963.

WHAT IT MEANS

The 30-day dry streak has been felt across the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra Nevada:

• The lack of storms created a toxic brew of air pollution, triggering repeated bans on fireplace burning from Stockton to Bakersfield. Conditions may improve if rain materializes Thursday and Friday.

• Rural water districts are making rare January deliveries of water to farmers.

• There is still, however, lots of water in reservoirs from last winter. So there should be enough to get through this year.

• Rangeland is dry, causing problems for ranchers.

• Ski resorts are closed or only partially open. Mountain passes remain open, even Tioga Pass in Yosemite National Park, which has never been open past Jan. 1.

• The state has prohibited outdoor burning in Calaveras and eastern San Joaquin counties due to high fire danger.

• Unusually warm daytime temperatures in the 60s will likely drop into the 50s with arrival of rain. And unusually cold nighttime temperatures in the 20s and 30s may climb into the 40s.
With a pathetic 1.63 inches of rain since July, Stockton is behind the pace of even the driest year on record, 1975-76.

But we've been bailed out before.

"We're just looking at the sky, hoping," said 64-year-old Darrel Sweet, a fifth-generation cattle rancher near the Altamont Pass.

"It's unbelievably dry," Sweet said Friday, standing on a bronze hillside with only the slightest hint of green undergrowth remaining from storms last October. "If it rains soon, this'll all come back. But it'll take more than one storm."

That's what everyone is hoping for - from the bare Sierra Nevada ski resorts to the parched San Joaquin Valley farms.

In an effort to draw customers - even though it's not fully open - Bear Valley Ski Resort is hosting a "beach party" this holiday weekend with horseshoe tournaments, volleyball and an outdoor barbecue. Guided hikes have been added to a list of midwinter recreational opportunities.

Lower down, the South San Joaquin Irrigation District on Sunday will start shipping water to farms around Manteca, Ripon and Escalon, amidst concern that orchard trees may be in danger.

"We've got soil moisture probes in the ground, and 30 to 40 inches down there is zero moisture content in the soil," said Jeff Shields, the district's general manager. "These root structures, the trees and grapes - let alone the shallow crops - they're just not getting anything."

Almond trees, especially, need water as they begin to awaken from winter dormancy, Shields said.

The last time South San Joaquin delivered water during the winter was late January 1990, he said. The risk is that deliveries next summer might be cut off earlier than normal, if winter can't get its act together.

There is reason to believe that it might.

The cold-water La Niña phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean usually means wet in the Pacific Northwest and dry in the Southwest. Stockton, somewhere in the middle, can go either way.

To date, storms have passed far to the north. But now the jet stream is shifting in our direction.

While it's too soon to know how long it will linger - the National Weather Service says it can't predict how much rain will fall next week, let alone next month - the federal Climate Prediction Center expects above normal rain and snow for at least the next two weeks.  Go to this article

Comments

[Commercial Water Treatment]

clouds on the horizon?

[plumbing]

Freezing is one of the common problem. But there is another one is the dry season.

[wastewater diffuser]

The drought hasn't been just in Stockton - here in Colorado, the snow pack is well below average in almost the entire state.

And unless we get more snow, of course, there will be drought this summer throughout the West.

[Salwar Kameez]

I think there are no clouds on the horizon

[green investments]

Does not sound good. And as the Colorado guy mention above, the strange lack of snow this winter will only make things worse come spring.